The 2026 south-west monsoon is ending in deficit. Between 1 June and 9 September, India received 648 mm against a normal of 760.6 mm — a shortfall of 15 per cent. September itself has been the driest stretch: 44.3 mm in the first nine days against a normal of 59.9 mm, a deficit of 26 per cent. The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for the month, which would leave the season short overall.
The season ran unevenly. June opened 35 per cent below normal, July was close to average, and August came in more than 16 per cent short. The southern peninsula has been hardest hit, at 27 per cent below normal through 7 September, with Rajasthan, Bihar and Chhattisgarh also short. Of 741 districts assessed to the end of August, 312 were below normal and 38 were classified as largely deficient. August was also the warmest August recorded in India since 1901, at a mean temperature of 28.01°C.
The immediate agricultural effect has been on area rather than yield. Kharif sowing reached 108.6 million hectares by 4 September, about 1.6 per cent below the five-year normal, with rice down 3.4 per cent year on year, coarse cereals down 2.3 per cent and oilseeds marginally lower. Pulses went the other way, up 1.2 per cent. Reservoir storage in the 150 major reservoirs stood at roughly 68–70 per cent of capacity, against 74–86 per cent a year earlier, which is the number that matters for the winter crop: rabi sowing depends on stored water rather than on rain.
Two drivers are behind the shortfall. A strong El Niño has built over the equatorial Pacific and is expected to strengthen, and the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, offering no compensating effect. CRISIL has argued that the risk has now shifted from acreage to yields, naming cotton, bajra, maize, tur, groundnut and soybean as the most exposed.
The inflation channel runs directly from here. Food inflation was already 5.52 per cent in July when the RBI set its FY27 projection of 5.0 per cent with a third-quarter peak of 5.9 per cent. A weak kharif, arriving alongside crude above $100, puts both ends of that forecast under pressure. Rural demand has held up so far — agricultural credit grew 17 per cent year on year in July, and tractor and two-wheeler sales were steady — but the harvest, not the sowing, is what determines whether that continues.
